First things first, week five is the first week that the National Football League has byes this year. It brings the total games of the week down to a small 13, and sees that the following teams are taking a break to recover, regroup, and figure out any hiccups they have for the next 12 weeks. The Ravens, Browns, Cowboys, Dolphins, Rams, and Redskins all have the week off, so for the fans of those teams this week – sit back and enjoy the touch match-ups that the league is letting you enjoy.
Secondly, week five is full of games that I believe could go either way. I’m not saying this for a cop out, or as an excuse for any games that I might get wrong, I just truly believe that the majority of the games this week could go either way. I will accept the games that I pick wrong, I will not complain, and I will not mess with my record with any cheesy excuses, the picks I make are final, and I will stand by them. So we go.
Tennessee at Pittsburgh
Tennessee finally started to come together last week, in a fairly impressive showing. They faced Cleveland, who I still believe is a few years out of a winning record, so take what they did with a grain of salt. Hasselbeck came out hot and threw for three touchdowns in the first half against a soft Browns secondary. He still finished at 10 for 20 on the day, for a total of 220 yards and three touchdowns. He did have a couple of blemishes on the game, 50% on completions isn’t anything to really brag about, and throwing an interception can definitely ruin what was shaping up to be a good day. But losing your best receiver the week before, and still connecting for three touchdowns definitely sends a message. On top of that, Chris Johnson might finally be knocking some lockout rust off of his legs, he surpassed the century mark and hit 101 yards on 23 carries. Although it isn’t CJ’s most impressive showing, it might be a spark that’s showing he’s getting back in to form. Between Hasselbeck and Johnson, the Titans look like they’re in pretty good shape this week.
James Harrison is hurt, Big Ben has been sacked 14 times, lost four fumbles, and thrown five interceptions, and the Steelers are reeling. Normally this would be a time when I say it’s the perfect time for a team to show what they’re made of, it’s time for them to get out there and play their game. But with both their offensive leader giving the ball away three times more than scoring, and one of their emotional leaders on the defensive side of the ball already ruled out, I think that Pittsburgh is surprisingly the underdog this week. They still have Mendenhall and Wallace on the offensive side of the ball, both of who can turn nothing into a touchdown, and a number of intimidating players on defense, but I think that the mental game might just be too much for the Steelers this week. Their only saving grace might be that they are playing at home.
Hasselbeck and Johnson surprise a shock a strong defense on the road and Tennessee leaves with the win 20-13
Cincinnati at Jacksonville
Last week I wrote of Cincinnati’s defense. I completely overlooked them, and handed Buffalo a monster of a win. I don’t think I’ll make the same mistake twice. Cinci held Fred Jackson to just 66 yards on 17 carries, when Jackson had been one of the best rushers in the league through the first three weeks. The Bengal’s actually sit at first in the league right now with allowing opposing offenses an average of only 275.5 yards per game. The Jaguars do have some weapons, but with a rookie quarterback, and no huge names in the wide receiver department, I think the Bengals defense wins the game for two weeks in a row.
Jacksonville put up a decent fight against the powerhouse New Orleans Saints, but they fell behind early and left the games in the hands of rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert ended the game at 16-42, 196 yards and a touchdown. The yardage and touchdown aren’t awful, but a percentage that low is something that won’t beat a defense that’s as strong as the Bengals. On top of that, if the Jags fall behind early against this week they need to really on their best offensive player, Maurice Jones-Drew. Last week MJD had 84 yards, and an average of 7.6 a carry, the bad news there is Jones-Drew only got 11 carries compared to Gabberts 42 passing attempts. This week Jacksonville needs to pick their poison, throw the ball with your rookie quarterback again, or give the ball to a running back that is facing statistically one of the best defenses in the league.
I need to go with Cincinnati this week, they proved to me last week that once they figure out the opposing offense they are going to be a force.
Bengals win 23-10
Seattle at New York Giants
Sidney Rice returning the past couple of weeks has made Seattles offense much better than it was in the first two weeks. In the two games that Rice has played, he’s already only one reception short of being tied for the lead. This addition to the offense seems to be what Jackson has been waiting for to finally start realizing his own potential. Seattle still sits towards the bottom of the league in points and yards, rushing, passing and total. Maybe the next few weeks they can figure out how to get Lynch more involved by spreading out opposing defenses with Rice, but I still think they’re at least a couple of weeks away from really clicking.
Last week the Giants did exactly what I thought they would do against a tough and underrated Cardinals team. New York let the Cardinals hang around, and even lead the game; but just as I expected, Eli somehow, and some way finds a way to win more often than not. Sure some people will argue they got help from the officials with what was a very controversial no-fumble call, but a win is a win. Eli threw two touchdowns in just 58 short seconds, along with a rushing touchdown from both Bradshaw and Jacobs earlier in the game, to steal a win from Arizona. The two headed rushing attack is impressive, the defense is incredibly beat up but continues to hold their own, and Eli still shocks everyone with ridiculous wins.
I don’t think Eli will need two late touchdowns in this one to secure the win. I think the Giants will lock it up early against the inexperienced Seattle offense, and hold the ball with a well balance rushing attack.
New York continues to impress with Eli and a banged up defense winning 24-13.
Arizona at Minnesota
Arizona might not be the best team in the league, but expect for the last two minutes last week they looked pretty impressive. Beanie Wells ran for 138 yards on 27 carries, on top of that he pounded three of those carries into the end zone. I think this was the game Beanie needed to prove that he can be the workhorse for that team. Better news? Kolb thrived under a well balance offense. The games that Kolb started in Philadelphia last season were all games that didn’t rely on just one player shocking a defense, but a plethora of offensive play styles all folding into one to keep the defense guessing. With Wells proving that he can carry his worth, not only is it going to make the Kolb to Fitzgerald combination even scarier, but it’s going to open up receivers like Early Doucet, and Todd Heap later in games. As long as the defense can hold opposing offenses in check, I think Arizona is going to get better each week.
Speaking of getting better, Adrian Peterson needs to become a presence for the Vikings to be successful. McNabb may have finally done a little better, and proven a little bit of his worth this past week, but this team needs Peterson to be good to succeed. Sure Peterson is third in the league on rushing yards right now, and yes he has gotten his share of touches, but what has he done with those touches? Only 3 touchdowns over 4 games. Yeah, some players can only dream of having that in a year, or even a career. But Peterson isn’t “some player.” For the Vikings to be successful AP needs to have a combination of 2008’s yardage, with 2009’s touchdowns, and 2010’s fumbles. Peterson needs to be THE player for the Vikings, because McNabb just doesn’t seem to be working out.
Honestly, this was the hardest game for me to pick this week. I flip-flopped back and forth, looking at both teams from both sides of the ball many times more than I do on most of my games, but with how theses have been playing this year I don’t see how Minnesota can win. Things just haven’t been going right for them this season, and this week I don’t see that changing.
Arizona wins with Beanie Wells getting a majority of touches 21-17
Philadelphia at Buffalo
Anyone who is a football fan has heard this whole “Dream Team” thing. I’m pretty sick of it. Why? Because I predicted the Eagles to be in the SuperBowl before the season even started. Is it still possible? Of Course. But not with how they have been playing. Michael Vick gained nearly 500 yards between his arm and legs last week, but somehow the team still managed to lose the game. The defense that is supposed to be one of the premiere defenses in the game hasn’t given up less than 100 yards on the ground through four weeks. That includes a spectrum of rushing attacks ranging from the dual-headed dragon of Bradshaw and Jacobs of the Giants, to a Frank Gore who was bang-up and questionable going into the game with an ankle sprain. I don’t care if an offense is good, great, or even incredible. If a defense can’t control the pace of the game, if they continue to give up big plays at game changing times, how can they expect to win?
Now that my rant on my disappointment in the Eagles is over, let’s talk about the Bills. Like I said when I was talking about the Bengals earlier, Jackson was held to just 66 yards on 17 carries. Buffalo can’t do this if they expect to beat Philadelphia. I still have faith in Fitzpatrick, and still believe that he and his receivers are fantastic threats in any game, but until the Eagles prove that they can stop the run I’d keep sending Jackson right up the middle until he gets tired, and then hope C.J. Spiller can come out and play and keep that rushing attack going.
The Eagles rushing defense is too poor, and the Bills rushing attack is too strong. I can’t see this game going any other way, especially in Bills territory.
I can’t believe I’m saying this, growing up in a generation where the Bills have forever been in the shadows of the AFC East, but Buffalo moves to 4-1 after winning a high scoring affair 34-31.
New Orleans at Carolina
New Orleans offense continued to impress me last week. It seems that each weeks there’s a new standout player, and a balanced pass heavy attack has kept defenses guessing throughout the early season. With only one loss coming this year, to the reigning champion Green Bay Packers, the Saints have continued to look as good as they’ve been for the past two years. With Drew Brees acquiring new targets like Sproles and Graham, the Saints have grown where they’ve been best, the passing game. Currently ranked second in passing yards per game, and offensive yards per game, Drew and friends are showing no signs of slowing down.
So far this season pass heavy offenses have been a struggle for the blitz heavy Saints defense. Week one saw Aaron Rodgers put up 312 yards and three touchdowns, and week three showed how good Matt Schaub is when he threw for 373 yards and three touchdowns. Now Cam Newton might not be on the Schaub or Rodgers level yet, but when it comes to passing this season Cam sits above both of them in yards thrown. Steve Smith is returning to his former glory with the revitalization of the team. Smith has 24 receptions for 530 yards, and two touchdowns, and expect those numbers to increase this week.
I expect the game to be a fun one, with some big offensive plays coming from either side of the ball. With Carolina being at home I suspect that they’ll being throwing everything they’ve got at New Orleans to try and shock them with the upset. But Brees and company are too good, too versatile.
New Orleans takes one on the road 31-24
Kansas City at Indianapolis
Kansas City had a decent game against Minnesota last week, but that hasn’t been hard for any team this year. Luckily for them, this week is a match-up of backups. Without Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs are going to be the underdogs more often than not this year, and I don’t think that this week is much different. On the bright side, Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe seem to be improving their game each week, and quite possibly could exploit some holes in the Colts secondary this week.
Indianapolis put up a good fight last week. Painter had an above average game thanks to some long catch and runs from Pierre Garcon. Even if no one else is a believer in Painter, Coach Caldwell is fully committed to giving him another start in week five. If the offensive line can hold up, and give him a few extra seconds to breathe, we might see some more long touchdown passes from the young quarterback this week.
This is probably going to be more of a defensive battle than offensive showcase, and I think the Colts probably have a few more weapons, and play stopping players on their roster.
Colts win 17-13
Oakland at Houston
Darren McFadden has rushed for over 150 yards twice this season. In both of those games the Raiders have found a victory. The other two games? McFadden didn’t reach 150 if you add them together, close at 147, but not quite 150. In both of these games the Raiders have lost. Get what I’m saying yet? Oakland, you’ve got one of the best runners in the game, you’ve got the most running yards per game in the league, stick with it! The Houston defense hasn’t faced a rushing attack like the Raiders can present yet this season, with the only team that’s gone over 100 yards against them on the ground being the Dolphins.
Andre Johnson is out. Although this doesn’t spell defeat for the Texans, it does hurt their chances. Andre would spread defenses, and keep the secondary always looking for the pass. This week Jacoby Jones and Owen Daniels are going to have to step up and play big factors in the passing game to compliment Arian Foster’s moves out of the backfield. Foster ran 30 times for over 150 yards last week in his first real game back this season, and as long as his legs keep moving under him this Texans offense should be just fine.
This game is going to be determined by rushing defense. Last week Stevan Ridley of the New England Patriots ran through the Raiders defense. If that defensive front doesn’t step up to a rookie running back, how are they going to do against a proven Arian Foster?
Houston relies on the legs of Arian Foster, and runs to the 24-17 victory.
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