I’m a lot more confident this week, I think I’ve got a better grasp on my balance of picking teams based on how they should be playing compared to how they have been playing. I think I’ll have a big turn around from the 8-5 last week – knock on wood – but enjoy the football everyone, and tell me how you feel!
Teams with a Bye Week
Cardinals, Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers, Seahawks, Titans
Carolina at Atlanta
Cam Newton again last week brought the Panthers very close to victory. If you look at Carolina’s schedule they have had some incredibly tough opponents. In Cam’s first game they faced the Cardinals, but hey, it was his first NFL game ever. From that point on they’ve lost to Green Bay by seven, they beat Jacksonville by six in Cam’s worst game, they only lost to Chicago by five, and last week they almost beat New Orleans but came up short 27-30. Cam is going to catch fire soon, and his team is going to catch on. The Panthers are there, they are so close, and one of these weeks they are going to explode and just continue to cruise onwards. All of their losses have been by single digits so far this season, DeAngelo stepped it up a bit last week rushing for 115 yards and a touchdown, for Carolina to win he’s going to have to do just as well to balance the Panthers offensive attack this week.
Atlanta has weapons. Matt Ryan has a solid seven touchdowns this season, but Michael Turner only has four rushing. Atlanta has been caught up pretty heavily in throwing the ball early in the year, and have only let Turner carry the ball 84 times through five games. Turner is one of the better running backs in the league, and with an average of 4.3 rushes a carry he deserves to carry a little bit more of the workload than he’s been trusted with through the first five. I understand when teams are down they need to rely on some desperation passes, and the Falcons have incredible talents on the receiving end in Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez – it’s not surprising that they pass the ball. But use Turner more! Julio is out this week, and that could result in Turner finally getting the ball a bit more.
As much as I like the Panthers in the future I don’t think that big game is going to come in the Georgia Dome. Atlanta’s versatile attack is going to put up the same big numbers they’ve had trouble matching four out of five games early in the year.
Atlanta escapes a heavy Cam Newton attack with a 33-27 win.
Indianapolis at Cincinnati
I picked Indy last week thinking that they were finally going to turn it around. Two weeks ago the Colts’ defense impressed me, last week the Colts offense surprised me, so this week I’m going into watching this game knowing what’s going to happen. The Colts one way or another will shoot themselves in the foot. Painter to Garcon has been working two weeks in a row, but it’s only going to take time until a defense figures out this catch and run routine and shuts it down. I think the Bengals are just the team to do that.
Dalton to Green is something I didn’t think I’d be talking heavily about for at least another year, but I think this game might be a big break out for them. The Colts have given up eight touchdowns and 1271 yards through the air already this season and I don’t think that is going to slow down on Sunday. Dalton will be looking for Green all day and I won’t be surprised to see some big plays coming over the top.
With the Colts giving up over one touchdown through the air a week and Joseph Addai being listed as questionable there are some big areas of concern they need to address before they can expect to get their first win this season.
The Bengals win with Green, Dalton, and Defense 24-10.
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh
In the first five games of the season Jacksonville’s Maurice Jones-Drew has out-rushed opposing running backs each time. Only one of those times did MJD break 100 yards, but that means that Jacksonville’s rushing defense has been doing something right. With a their rookie quarterback, and soft secondary though I will be surprised if Jones-Drew’s back is strong enough to carry his defense over a rebounding Steelers team.
Big Ben threw for five touchdowns last week, finally having the game that everyone that enjoys football knew he would eventually have. This game shouldn’t be much different for the big man. The Jaguars have given up big numbers through the air each week, excluding the rain game they had versus Carolina, and I think Big Ben is going to exploit some weaknesses that the Jaguars haven’t touched up yet. Dustin Keller, Greg Olsen, and Jimmy Graham were leading receivers against this Jacksonville defense for three consecutive weeks, I think Heath Miller might just fall into that category too.
Jacksonville’s passing defense isn’t good enough to slow down the tear that Ben is about to take off on. Mike Wallace and Heath Miller are too dangerous in the open, and with a strong quarterback like Roth they will both get some good opportunities.
Big Ben throws his way to victory for the second consecutive week 30-10.
Buffalo at New York Giants
Buffalo has won some games that were nail biters this year, some games no one expected them to win, and they’ve picked off Tom Brady and Michael Vick four times a piece. They let me down in week four, but did what I expected them to do in week five. I like this Buffalo defense, and I’m going to ride with them for at least one more week. Eli got shell-shocked at the end of the game last week, although it’s arguably not his fault for that last pick-six, I still think it’s going to have a bit of a hangover playing against a tough Bills secondary. On top of their defense, Fred Jackson was a beast again last week, and if he can carry that into New Jersey I think that the Bills are going to continue to shock NFL fans this season.
The Giants are going to have to hope that their wideouts can beat this tough secondary. If Nicks can be the tough receiver that everyone expects him to be game in and game out, if Victor Cruz can become more consistent, and if Mario Manningham can become the player he was in the past years then the Giants will stand a much better chance. Eli is going to have to pick his battles, and not try to force too many throws this week. The Giants rushing defense is going to need to really pick up their game this week if they expect to win.
In the last three games the Giants have given up 128, 138, and 98 yards to LeSean McCoy, Beanie Wells, and Marshawn Lynch respectively. This week with Fred Jackson coming to town they’re in for a rough game, With the Bills secondary continuing to play strong I just don’t see how this game goes any other way.
Bills continue to have a great season and take the win 28-21
San Francisco at Detroit
The 49ers looked incredible last week. They played a very tough Buccaneers team and made it look easier than beating a 0-16 Detroit Lions. Frank Gore was all legs as usual, and although he didn’t have big yards Vernon Davis came into the picture with two big touchdowns. The Niners defense held Josh Freeman to go just 17 of 33, and although Blount left the game early he only picked up 34 carries while replacement Earnest Graham got only 30. San Fran has been a team to watch early in the season, and I really like them. They have an offense that was very underrated although everyone knew how good Frank Gore was going to be, and a defense that can shut down some of the better players in the game. Even if they don’t do anything incredible this week they are going to be a force throughout the season.
What’s there to say about the Lions that I haven’t said for the past two weeks? How about Jahvid Best. He showed up last week, and he showed up HUGE. He may have got shut down for some small runs earlier in the game, but once he broke away for that big one he looked like he was going to continue to run all over the game – and he did. With an outstanding aerial attack it’s not surprising that Jahvid found some space in the running game. If Best can learn to pick apart these holes that the Stafford to Megatron combination is opening up then the Lions are going to learn to win even easier.
As good as the Niners are, and as much as I like them this year, I don’t think they’re the team that’s going to derail the Lions. I think they’ll put up a fight yes, I think they’ll be a tough speed bump, but I don’t think that they’re going to quite pull it off.
Lions do what the Lions do this year and enjoy Megatron’s big catches leading them to victory 28-24
St. Louis at Green Bay
St. Louis is just being caught at the wrong place at the wrong time. Bradford is going to be good, everyone knows that. Steven Jackson is coming back, which could spell some trouble during other games this year. The young receiving core that the Rams possess is something that is going to work out in time. But this week they are playing the Packers. And they are playing at Lambeau. That isn’t a way to get back on track for the season you were hoping for.
The Packers are the Packers. Does that explain it enough for you? They are one of two undefeated teams left this year, they are the defending league champions, and they have the arguably the best player in the league sitting under center. Aaron Rodgers was 26 for 39 last week and threw 396 yards, and even with all of that he was possibly disappointing to some with only two touchdowns. When people are expecting more than that, that’s when you know the player is special. With a offensive that destroys opposing defenses, and a defense that takes the ball away at a positive seven ratio there’s not much that spells defeat this week.
I would be shocked if anything but a Packers victory happens this week. Aaron Rodgers has a 122.9 rating this year, he’s completed over 71 percent of his passes, he has 14 touchdowns to only two interceptions. It’s awe-inspiring. I’ll be busy scraping my jaw off of the floor as a watch him play again this week.
Packers win at no surprise 31-13
Philadelphia at Washington
Philadelphia needs to win this week. It might only be week six to some teams in the NFL but I think that this is the earliest must win game of the season for any team. Sitting at just 1-3 when everyone was expecting one of the better seasons out of all the teams in the league, and going up against a division rival coming off of a bye week, this is a game that Michael Vick and friends need to control. I think the entire Eagles roster got a slap of reality these first four games, they aren’t the team they thought they were going to be, and now it’s time for everyone to put their ego’s aside and just play some ball. That’s what the Eagles need to do, it doesn’t come down to stats or numbers for them from this season so far, they just need to play as one cohesive unit for the first time this year, and if they don’t I think it might be an early write-off for the so called “Dream Team.”
Washington is coming off of a week five bye, and I’m having trouble deciding whether it was well timed, or ill timed. They were 3-1 going into their bye, so maybe it was bad to slow down the roll that they were on. But they are going up against Michael Vick and the Eagles who should be one of the toughest teams to plan for defensively. Grossman is going to have to put up numbers, the triple headed backfield of Hightower, Helu, and Torain should have a nice time running through what has so far been a very soft run defense from the Eagles, and Santana Moss is still one of my favorite wide-outs to watch. The Redskins have the weapons, and they’ve had two weeks to plan so they could quite possibly push on in their NFC East bid.
I think this game is more of the Eagles game to lose than the Redskins to win. The Eagles need to piece it together this week, they need to finally get a statement win after sliding for three games straight, but to do that they can’t try and force it. They need to play their game.
The Eagles take a must win game and make the best of it winning 27-20
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