So week five didn’t go as well as week four, but I’m still not too disappointed. I knew going into the week that a lot of those games were going to be tough to call, and I picked some based on how poorly some teams were playing to date, and not how well they should have been playing. After starting off at a lowly 3-5 through the one o’clock games I was very confident with the rest of my picks. I got the rest of Sunday’s games correct, and finished with a Monday night victory.
Games I got wrong:
Tennessee at Pittsburgh
I thought Chris Johnson and Hasselbeck were both going to have big games and really turn this defense inside out with a slew of wild plays. I was wrong. Big Ben went into the game with a lot of turnovers, and I thought that was going to continue. Again, I was wrong. Big Ben came out and although he threw one touchdown, he also showed why he’s a multiple time Super Bowl Champion throwing for five touchdowns. Maybe Big Ben’s back. I’ll be keeping my eyes on him and holding off on the doubt for a few games.
Seattle at New York Giants
I thought this was the most sure thing of the week. I thought the Giants were going to destroy Seattle. And when Jackson left the game, I would have promised you the game was over. When Eli was driving down the field, I wasn’t worried one bit. I guess I should have been. I don’t know what to even say for this game, the Giants just didn’t show up. The holes in their team were exposed, and they were taken advantage of. The Seahawks went in to Giants territory, took their ball, brought it back home to Seattle, and locked the door.
Arizona at Minnesota
It was only a matter of time until Adrian Peterson reminded everyone who he is; why not at home versus the Cardinals? AP had three touchdowns in the first quarter and with each one I was kicking myself. This was one of those games where I was thinking “oh, the Vikings haven’t been doing anything so far, they don’t stand a chance,” when I should have been thinking “The Vikings are going to explode.” I was brought back to reality, and reminded that Minnesota can be good when Adrian gets the ball.
Kansas City at Indianapolis
I thought Indy was going to turn it around this week, and I thought that their defense was going to be strong enough to hold off any attack that the Chiefs brought on. I was close, the game was close, and honestly I’m not even mad that I got this game wrong. The Colts were up by three scores at one point, and I thought that the game was out of reach. And then Dwayne Bowe came knocking. Kansas City came roaring back, and snatched victory away in a very entertaining win. Hats off to you Mr. Bowe.
Oakland at Houston
Andre Johnson was out and Al Davis had just past away. I don’t know what I was thinking. Yes it was a close game, and yes Schaub had a chance to win the game in the final seconds. But Al Davis reached down from the heavens and made sure that didn’t happen. Davis was always about winning, for years it was what he preached. And I should have known that emotion was going to be a strong factor for the game. I thought Arian Foster and the Texans offense was going to be too much, I thought they would stampede over the Raiders, and for a while I remained confident, I was confident until Schaub’s last throw. And then I realized how foolish I was. The Raiders weren’t going to let Houston get a game winner, not that day. Was I wrong? Yes. Do I wish I was right? Of course. Am I upset? Not at all. I’m happy for the Raiders, I’m happy Al Davis’ legacy lived that day, and will continue to live on.
Things to look forward to:
The Eagles want to win, and the Redskins have had two weeks to prepare to Vick and the troops. This is probably going to be one of the better games of the week. I think this is an early “must win” for the Eagles, but I don’t expect it to be easy for anybody.
San Francisco and Detroit are two of my favorite teams to watch so far this year. San Fran has surprised everyone with a pretty balanced attack across the board, and a stellar defense. Put that up against Stafford and Megatron – Suh and Fairley, and I think we have a nail biter on our hands.
Week 5 record: 8-5 – 61.5%
Overall Record: 22-7 – 75.8%
My favorite play of the week:
I know I picked Tennessee to win, and of course I wanted them to, but I need to give credit where credit is due. When someone goes for a trick play it’s always fun to watch. When a team goes for a trick play and it’s successful it’s even better. When a team goes for a trick play, and it’s the last thing you expect because of how much time is left on the clock, think Super Bowl Saints, it’s absolutely phenomenal.
I respect what the Steelers did, I loved it, and it was my favorite play of the week. I thought the Bowe catch was awesome, the Seattle pick-six was a game winner, but I found this to be the most intriguing play of the week, and I can’t get over how fun to watch plays like this are.
Friday, October 14, 2011
Saturday, October 8, 2011
Week 5 - Monday Night Football
Monday Night!
Chicago at Detroit
Cutler has relied on Forte so much early in the season so far, and for good reason. Forte has been one of the most threatening dual-threats in the league. Going into the week Matt led the team with total yards from scrimmage, and that hasn’t changed. He has over 300 receiving and rushing yards so far this season, which is something that I find astonishing. For the Bears to do well against the Lions though, they’re going to need Cutler to do more than just give the ball to Forte. Last week Cutler went just 9-17 with 102 yards, and relied on Forte’s 205 rushing yards to beat the Panthers. This week they’re facing a team that’s much better than the Panthers in an impressive Detroit.
Detroit continued to play their game last week. A game of catch-up. Stafford and Megatron did what they do, too. It was a week of consistencies for the Lions, and I love it. They’re one of the teams that I will never count out of a game this season, until that final whistle blows. Calvin Johnson had no touchdowns through three quarters last week, and the Lions looked like they were in rough shape, so what did they do? They kept throwing to him. In the fourth quarter Calvin caught two touchdowns, and got his team another victory.
I love what the Lions do, and going up against a defense that just let Cam Newton throw for almost 375 yards, I don’t see Stafford doing any worse.
The Lions are playing at home, on Monday night primetime television, in front of what is going to be one of the loudest crowds of the year. The Bears are going to need to prepare for a lot this week, and adding in the noise is going to make this game even more difficult.
Detroit enjoys the noise, the hometown atmosphere, and a primetime game, as they beat the Bears and remain undefeated. Lions 24 Bears 20.
Chicago at Detroit
Cutler has relied on Forte so much early in the season so far, and for good reason. Forte has been one of the most threatening dual-threats in the league. Going into the week Matt led the team with total yards from scrimmage, and that hasn’t changed. He has over 300 receiving and rushing yards so far this season, which is something that I find astonishing. For the Bears to do well against the Lions though, they’re going to need Cutler to do more than just give the ball to Forte. Last week Cutler went just 9-17 with 102 yards, and relied on Forte’s 205 rushing yards to beat the Panthers. This week they’re facing a team that’s much better than the Panthers in an impressive Detroit.
Detroit continued to play their game last week. A game of catch-up. Stafford and Megatron did what they do, too. It was a week of consistencies for the Lions, and I love it. They’re one of the teams that I will never count out of a game this season, until that final whistle blows. Calvin Johnson had no touchdowns through three quarters last week, and the Lions looked like they were in rough shape, so what did they do? They kept throwing to him. In the fourth quarter Calvin caught two touchdowns, and got his team another victory.
I love what the Lions do, and going up against a defense that just let Cam Newton throw for almost 375 yards, I don’t see Stafford doing any worse.
The Lions are playing at home, on Monday night primetime television, in front of what is going to be one of the loudest crowds of the year. The Bears are going to need to prepare for a lot this week, and adding in the noise is going to make this game even more difficult.
Detroit enjoys the noise, the hometown atmosphere, and a primetime game, as they beat the Bears and remain undefeated. Lions 24 Bears 20.
Week 5 - Sunday Night Football
Green Bay at Atlanta
Aaron Rodgers has been arguably the best player in the NFL this year to date. He threw for monster numbers game one, and hasn’t slowed down even a step. Last week Rodgers showed why he might be the deadliest quarterback in the league when he went for four touchdowns through the air, and two touchdowns with his feet. With threats of Jennings, Driver, Finley, and Nelson, coupled with a backfield of Starks, Grant, and Kuhn the Packers are putting up more points than anyone else in the league. And what’s even better is that the Packers defense does their part just as well. Early in the season the Packers defense has 12 takeaways, and 11 sacks. Wow. Talk about well rounded.
Atlanta has some monsters on their team as well. Matt Ryan is a young proven quarterback, who the Atlanta front offense has given some nice targets to play with. Roddy White is consistently one of the top receivers in the league the past few years, but now with Julio Jones stepping up to play, Roddy doesn’t have to do everything himself. Michael Turner will always keep that offense balanced, being one of the premier running backs in the league. If the Falcons want to put up a fighting chance this week all of these guys are going to have to have really good games.
The biggest thing in this Sunday Night game is going to be whether or not the Falcons offensive line can prevent the Packers from getting to Ryan. Everyone already knows the Packers offense is going to put up points, so the Falcons are going to need to put up a lot of their own if they want to win, which means Ryan needs to avoid big hits.
Packers continue to roll in week 5 beating Atlanta 34-20
Aaron Rodgers has been arguably the best player in the NFL this year to date. He threw for monster numbers game one, and hasn’t slowed down even a step. Last week Rodgers showed why he might be the deadliest quarterback in the league when he went for four touchdowns through the air, and two touchdowns with his feet. With threats of Jennings, Driver, Finley, and Nelson, coupled with a backfield of Starks, Grant, and Kuhn the Packers are putting up more points than anyone else in the league. And what’s even better is that the Packers defense does their part just as well. Early in the season the Packers defense has 12 takeaways, and 11 sacks. Wow. Talk about well rounded.
Atlanta has some monsters on their team as well. Matt Ryan is a young proven quarterback, who the Atlanta front offense has given some nice targets to play with. Roddy White is consistently one of the top receivers in the league the past few years, but now with Julio Jones stepping up to play, Roddy doesn’t have to do everything himself. Michael Turner will always keep that offense balanced, being one of the premier running backs in the league. If the Falcons want to put up a fighting chance this week all of these guys are going to have to have really good games.
The biggest thing in this Sunday Night game is going to be whether or not the Falcons offensive line can prevent the Packers from getting to Ryan. Everyone already knows the Packers offense is going to put up points, so the Falcons are going to need to put up a lot of their own if they want to win, which means Ryan needs to avoid big hits.
Packers continue to roll in week 5 beating Atlanta 34-20
Week 5 - 4:00 O'Clock Games
Tampa Bay at San Francisco
Freeman was huge on Monday night with his arm, throwing a solid 287 yards and one touchdown, but more importantly were his legs. When the Bucs were in a tough spot in the fourth quarter, Freeman did as Freeman does, and once again led his team downfield for a game winning scoring drive. Freeman’s fourth quarter play is something that was talked about a lot last week, and he proved why. When the game is close, and time is winding down, Freeman is proving he’s one of the more clutch quarterbacks in the league. Not only was Freeman good, but they got the legs I was expecting out of Blount for 127 yards on only 25 touches. If Blount can do that again, then Tampa Bay could pose a pretty big threat for the 49ers.
San Francisco sits atop a lowly NFC West. The only team with more than one win has surprised many with their 3-1 start. Frank Gore last week threw the team on his one leg, and hobbled his way through a repulsive Eagles defense for 127 yards on only 15 carries. More impressive has been the 9ers defense. They’ve already picked off opposing quarterbacks six times, forced five fumbles, and amassed nine sacks in just four games. This defense is for real.
I like both of these teams. I think they’re both underrated, and can both do incredible things. This week though, I think Patrick Willis and the 49ers defense is going to shut down Freeman’s attempt at starting 4-1.
San Francisco takes one at home 24-14
New York Jets at New England
This year the Jets have not been able to find their running game. With only averaging 71 rushing yards a game, they’ve been struggling to stay afloat in most games this season. Sure the Jets started off hot, they had back to back wins to start the season, one being handed to them by Tony Romo, and the other being handed to them by the league when they scheduled the Jaguars for week two. Since then, the Jets lost to two good teams in the Raiders and got pummeled by the Ravens. Luckily for New York fans, the Patriots defense is nothing close to what the Ravens through at them last week. For the Jets to be successful this week, they’re going to need to rely on their defense to assault Tom Brady, and get some early takeaways.
Last week Brady threw for his least amount of yards so far this season with only 226 yards on 16 completions and two touchdowns. The Patriots went the whole game without turning the ball over to the Raiders though, and played with a much more balanced attack that Brady himself said he liked. With guys like Stevan Ridley and BenJarvus Green-Ellis showing some life in the Patriots running game, that potent offense just got much more dangerous. I expect the Pats to continue with what they did last week, and show a balanced front against a Jets defense that could spell some trouble.
The Pats have to still be mad about how their season ended last year, and now is really their first chance at true revenge. I expect big plays, and a few early scores. I don’t think it’s going to be a blowout like it was during the regular season last year, but I do expect some numbers to be put on the board.
Pats do what they do best and win. Patriots 31 Jets 17
San Diego at Denver
San Diego has built up a really nice offense early in the season. Philip Rivers has consistently been good, with a completion percentage close to 70, and five touchdowns. Despite having six interceptions, he already has close to 1300 yards, and looks like he could be dangerous week in and week out as any other quarterback in the league. With weapons like Vincent Jackson for Rivers to throw to it isn’t hard to see why they’ve been successful through the air. And to complete the balanced attack, the Chargers have a backfield complimentary of itself with Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert. All around this offense is solid, and I won’t be surprised when they show up to play this weekend.
Denver needs an identity. They’re always questioned by their quarterback situation, their leading receiver is second year player Eric Decker, and their running game is just something I don’t understand. McGahee has all of their rushing touchdowns this season with a total of one. If a team can’t pound the ball in with the running game, I don’t see how they can be successful in the NFL.
San Diego beats up on a soft Broncos team 27-13
Freeman was huge on Monday night with his arm, throwing a solid 287 yards and one touchdown, but more importantly were his legs. When the Bucs were in a tough spot in the fourth quarter, Freeman did as Freeman does, and once again led his team downfield for a game winning scoring drive. Freeman’s fourth quarter play is something that was talked about a lot last week, and he proved why. When the game is close, and time is winding down, Freeman is proving he’s one of the more clutch quarterbacks in the league. Not only was Freeman good, but they got the legs I was expecting out of Blount for 127 yards on only 25 touches. If Blount can do that again, then Tampa Bay could pose a pretty big threat for the 49ers.
San Francisco sits atop a lowly NFC West. The only team with more than one win has surprised many with their 3-1 start. Frank Gore last week threw the team on his one leg, and hobbled his way through a repulsive Eagles defense for 127 yards on only 15 carries. More impressive has been the 9ers defense. They’ve already picked off opposing quarterbacks six times, forced five fumbles, and amassed nine sacks in just four games. This defense is for real.
I like both of these teams. I think they’re both underrated, and can both do incredible things. This week though, I think Patrick Willis and the 49ers defense is going to shut down Freeman’s attempt at starting 4-1.
San Francisco takes one at home 24-14
New York Jets at New England
This year the Jets have not been able to find their running game. With only averaging 71 rushing yards a game, they’ve been struggling to stay afloat in most games this season. Sure the Jets started off hot, they had back to back wins to start the season, one being handed to them by Tony Romo, and the other being handed to them by the league when they scheduled the Jaguars for week two. Since then, the Jets lost to two good teams in the Raiders and got pummeled by the Ravens. Luckily for New York fans, the Patriots defense is nothing close to what the Ravens through at them last week. For the Jets to be successful this week, they’re going to need to rely on their defense to assault Tom Brady, and get some early takeaways.
Last week Brady threw for his least amount of yards so far this season with only 226 yards on 16 completions and two touchdowns. The Patriots went the whole game without turning the ball over to the Raiders though, and played with a much more balanced attack that Brady himself said he liked. With guys like Stevan Ridley and BenJarvus Green-Ellis showing some life in the Patriots running game, that potent offense just got much more dangerous. I expect the Pats to continue with what they did last week, and show a balanced front against a Jets defense that could spell some trouble.
The Pats have to still be mad about how their season ended last year, and now is really their first chance at true revenge. I expect big plays, and a few early scores. I don’t think it’s going to be a blowout like it was during the regular season last year, but I do expect some numbers to be put on the board.
Pats do what they do best and win. Patriots 31 Jets 17
San Diego at Denver
San Diego has built up a really nice offense early in the season. Philip Rivers has consistently been good, with a completion percentage close to 70, and five touchdowns. Despite having six interceptions, he already has close to 1300 yards, and looks like he could be dangerous week in and week out as any other quarterback in the league. With weapons like Vincent Jackson for Rivers to throw to it isn’t hard to see why they’ve been successful through the air. And to complete the balanced attack, the Chargers have a backfield complimentary of itself with Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert. All around this offense is solid, and I won’t be surprised when they show up to play this weekend.
Denver needs an identity. They’re always questioned by their quarterback situation, their leading receiver is second year player Eric Decker, and their running game is just something I don’t understand. McGahee has all of their rushing touchdowns this season with a total of one. If a team can’t pound the ball in with the running game, I don’t see how they can be successful in the NFL.
San Diego beats up on a soft Broncos team 27-13
Week 5 - 1:00 O'Clock Games
First things first, week five is the first week that the National Football League has byes this year. It brings the total games of the week down to a small 13, and sees that the following teams are taking a break to recover, regroup, and figure out any hiccups they have for the next 12 weeks. The Ravens, Browns, Cowboys, Dolphins, Rams, and Redskins all have the week off, so for the fans of those teams this week – sit back and enjoy the touch match-ups that the league is letting you enjoy.
Secondly, week five is full of games that I believe could go either way. I’m not saying this for a cop out, or as an excuse for any games that I might get wrong, I just truly believe that the majority of the games this week could go either way. I will accept the games that I pick wrong, I will not complain, and I will not mess with my record with any cheesy excuses, the picks I make are final, and I will stand by them. So we go.
Tennessee at Pittsburgh
Tennessee finally started to come together last week, in a fairly impressive showing. They faced Cleveland, who I still believe is a few years out of a winning record, so take what they did with a grain of salt. Hasselbeck came out hot and threw for three touchdowns in the first half against a soft Browns secondary. He still finished at 10 for 20 on the day, for a total of 220 yards and three touchdowns. He did have a couple of blemishes on the game, 50% on completions isn’t anything to really brag about, and throwing an interception can definitely ruin what was shaping up to be a good day. But losing your best receiver the week before, and still connecting for three touchdowns definitely sends a message. On top of that, Chris Johnson might finally be knocking some lockout rust off of his legs, he surpassed the century mark and hit 101 yards on 23 carries. Although it isn’t CJ’s most impressive showing, it might be a spark that’s showing he’s getting back in to form. Between Hasselbeck and Johnson, the Titans look like they’re in pretty good shape this week.
James Harrison is hurt, Big Ben has been sacked 14 times, lost four fumbles, and thrown five interceptions, and the Steelers are reeling. Normally this would be a time when I say it’s the perfect time for a team to show what they’re made of, it’s time for them to get out there and play their game. But with both their offensive leader giving the ball away three times more than scoring, and one of their emotional leaders on the defensive side of the ball already ruled out, I think that Pittsburgh is surprisingly the underdog this week. They still have Mendenhall and Wallace on the offensive side of the ball, both of who can turn nothing into a touchdown, and a number of intimidating players on defense, but I think that the mental game might just be too much for the Steelers this week. Their only saving grace might be that they are playing at home.
Hasselbeck and Johnson surprise a shock a strong defense on the road and Tennessee leaves with the win 20-13
Cincinnati at Jacksonville
Last week I wrote of Cincinnati’s defense. I completely overlooked them, and handed Buffalo a monster of a win. I don’t think I’ll make the same mistake twice. Cinci held Fred Jackson to just 66 yards on 17 carries, when Jackson had been one of the best rushers in the league through the first three weeks. The Bengal’s actually sit at first in the league right now with allowing opposing offenses an average of only 275.5 yards per game. The Jaguars do have some weapons, but with a rookie quarterback, and no huge names in the wide receiver department, I think the Bengals defense wins the game for two weeks in a row.
Jacksonville put up a decent fight against the powerhouse New Orleans Saints, but they fell behind early and left the games in the hands of rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert ended the game at 16-42, 196 yards and a touchdown. The yardage and touchdown aren’t awful, but a percentage that low is something that won’t beat a defense that’s as strong as the Bengals. On top of that, if the Jags fall behind early against this week they need to really on their best offensive player, Maurice Jones-Drew. Last week MJD had 84 yards, and an average of 7.6 a carry, the bad news there is Jones-Drew only got 11 carries compared to Gabberts 42 passing attempts. This week Jacksonville needs to pick their poison, throw the ball with your rookie quarterback again, or give the ball to a running back that is facing statistically one of the best defenses in the league.
I need to go with Cincinnati this week, they proved to me last week that once they figure out the opposing offense they are going to be a force.
Bengals win 23-10
Seattle at New York Giants
Sidney Rice returning the past couple of weeks has made Seattles offense much better than it was in the first two weeks. In the two games that Rice has played, he’s already only one reception short of being tied for the lead. This addition to the offense seems to be what Jackson has been waiting for to finally start realizing his own potential. Seattle still sits towards the bottom of the league in points and yards, rushing, passing and total. Maybe the next few weeks they can figure out how to get Lynch more involved by spreading out opposing defenses with Rice, but I still think they’re at least a couple of weeks away from really clicking.
Last week the Giants did exactly what I thought they would do against a tough and underrated Cardinals team. New York let the Cardinals hang around, and even lead the game; but just as I expected, Eli somehow, and some way finds a way to win more often than not. Sure some people will argue they got help from the officials with what was a very controversial no-fumble call, but a win is a win. Eli threw two touchdowns in just 58 short seconds, along with a rushing touchdown from both Bradshaw and Jacobs earlier in the game, to steal a win from Arizona. The two headed rushing attack is impressive, the defense is incredibly beat up but continues to hold their own, and Eli still shocks everyone with ridiculous wins.
I don’t think Eli will need two late touchdowns in this one to secure the win. I think the Giants will lock it up early against the inexperienced Seattle offense, and hold the ball with a well balance rushing attack.
New York continues to impress with Eli and a banged up defense winning 24-13.
Arizona at Minnesota
Arizona might not be the best team in the league, but expect for the last two minutes last week they looked pretty impressive. Beanie Wells ran for 138 yards on 27 carries, on top of that he pounded three of those carries into the end zone. I think this was the game Beanie needed to prove that he can be the workhorse for that team. Better news? Kolb thrived under a well balance offense. The games that Kolb started in Philadelphia last season were all games that didn’t rely on just one player shocking a defense, but a plethora of offensive play styles all folding into one to keep the defense guessing. With Wells proving that he can carry his worth, not only is it going to make the Kolb to Fitzgerald combination even scarier, but it’s going to open up receivers like Early Doucet, and Todd Heap later in games. As long as the defense can hold opposing offenses in check, I think Arizona is going to get better each week.
Speaking of getting better, Adrian Peterson needs to become a presence for the Vikings to be successful. McNabb may have finally done a little better, and proven a little bit of his worth this past week, but this team needs Peterson to be good to succeed. Sure Peterson is third in the league on rushing yards right now, and yes he has gotten his share of touches, but what has he done with those touches? Only 3 touchdowns over 4 games. Yeah, some players can only dream of having that in a year, or even a career. But Peterson isn’t “some player.” For the Vikings to be successful AP needs to have a combination of 2008’s yardage, with 2009’s touchdowns, and 2010’s fumbles. Peterson needs to be THE player for the Vikings, because McNabb just doesn’t seem to be working out.
Honestly, this was the hardest game for me to pick this week. I flip-flopped back and forth, looking at both teams from both sides of the ball many times more than I do on most of my games, but with how theses have been playing this year I don’t see how Minnesota can win. Things just haven’t been going right for them this season, and this week I don’t see that changing.
Arizona wins with Beanie Wells getting a majority of touches 21-17
Philadelphia at Buffalo
Anyone who is a football fan has heard this whole “Dream Team” thing. I’m pretty sick of it. Why? Because I predicted the Eagles to be in the SuperBowl before the season even started. Is it still possible? Of Course. But not with how they have been playing. Michael Vick gained nearly 500 yards between his arm and legs last week, but somehow the team still managed to lose the game. The defense that is supposed to be one of the premiere defenses in the game hasn’t given up less than 100 yards on the ground through four weeks. That includes a spectrum of rushing attacks ranging from the dual-headed dragon of Bradshaw and Jacobs of the Giants, to a Frank Gore who was bang-up and questionable going into the game with an ankle sprain. I don’t care if an offense is good, great, or even incredible. If a defense can’t control the pace of the game, if they continue to give up big plays at game changing times, how can they expect to win?
Now that my rant on my disappointment in the Eagles is over, let’s talk about the Bills. Like I said when I was talking about the Bengals earlier, Jackson was held to just 66 yards on 17 carries. Buffalo can’t do this if they expect to beat Philadelphia. I still have faith in Fitzpatrick, and still believe that he and his receivers are fantastic threats in any game, but until the Eagles prove that they can stop the run I’d keep sending Jackson right up the middle until he gets tired, and then hope C.J. Spiller can come out and play and keep that rushing attack going.
The Eagles rushing defense is too poor, and the Bills rushing attack is too strong. I can’t see this game going any other way, especially in Bills territory.
I can’t believe I’m saying this, growing up in a generation where the Bills have forever been in the shadows of the AFC East, but Buffalo moves to 4-1 after winning a high scoring affair 34-31.
New Orleans at Carolina
New Orleans offense continued to impress me last week. It seems that each weeks there’s a new standout player, and a balanced pass heavy attack has kept defenses guessing throughout the early season. With only one loss coming this year, to the reigning champion Green Bay Packers, the Saints have continued to look as good as they’ve been for the past two years. With Drew Brees acquiring new targets like Sproles and Graham, the Saints have grown where they’ve been best, the passing game. Currently ranked second in passing yards per game, and offensive yards per game, Drew and friends are showing no signs of slowing down.
So far this season pass heavy offenses have been a struggle for the blitz heavy Saints defense. Week one saw Aaron Rodgers put up 312 yards and three touchdowns, and week three showed how good Matt Schaub is when he threw for 373 yards and three touchdowns. Now Cam Newton might not be on the Schaub or Rodgers level yet, but when it comes to passing this season Cam sits above both of them in yards thrown. Steve Smith is returning to his former glory with the revitalization of the team. Smith has 24 receptions for 530 yards, and two touchdowns, and expect those numbers to increase this week.
I expect the game to be a fun one, with some big offensive plays coming from either side of the ball. With Carolina being at home I suspect that they’ll being throwing everything they’ve got at New Orleans to try and shock them with the upset. But Brees and company are too good, too versatile.
New Orleans takes one on the road 31-24
Kansas City at Indianapolis
Kansas City had a decent game against Minnesota last week, but that hasn’t been hard for any team this year. Luckily for them, this week is a match-up of backups. Without Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs are going to be the underdogs more often than not this year, and I don’t think that this week is much different. On the bright side, Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe seem to be improving their game each week, and quite possibly could exploit some holes in the Colts secondary this week.
Indianapolis put up a good fight last week. Painter had an above average game thanks to some long catch and runs from Pierre Garcon. Even if no one else is a believer in Painter, Coach Caldwell is fully committed to giving him another start in week five. If the offensive line can hold up, and give him a few extra seconds to breathe, we might see some more long touchdown passes from the young quarterback this week.
This is probably going to be more of a defensive battle than offensive showcase, and I think the Colts probably have a few more weapons, and play stopping players on their roster.
Colts win 17-13
Oakland at Houston
Darren McFadden has rushed for over 150 yards twice this season. In both of those games the Raiders have found a victory. The other two games? McFadden didn’t reach 150 if you add them together, close at 147, but not quite 150. In both of these games the Raiders have lost. Get what I’m saying yet? Oakland, you’ve got one of the best runners in the game, you’ve got the most running yards per game in the league, stick with it! The Houston defense hasn’t faced a rushing attack like the Raiders can present yet this season, with the only team that’s gone over 100 yards against them on the ground being the Dolphins.
Andre Johnson is out. Although this doesn’t spell defeat for the Texans, it does hurt their chances. Andre would spread defenses, and keep the secondary always looking for the pass. This week Jacoby Jones and Owen Daniels are going to have to step up and play big factors in the passing game to compliment Arian Foster’s moves out of the backfield. Foster ran 30 times for over 150 yards last week in his first real game back this season, and as long as his legs keep moving under him this Texans offense should be just fine.
This game is going to be determined by rushing defense. Last week Stevan Ridley of the New England Patriots ran through the Raiders defense. If that defensive front doesn’t step up to a rookie running back, how are they going to do against a proven Arian Foster?
Houston relies on the legs of Arian Foster, and runs to the 24-17 victory.
Secondly, week five is full of games that I believe could go either way. I’m not saying this for a cop out, or as an excuse for any games that I might get wrong, I just truly believe that the majority of the games this week could go either way. I will accept the games that I pick wrong, I will not complain, and I will not mess with my record with any cheesy excuses, the picks I make are final, and I will stand by them. So we go.
Tennessee at Pittsburgh
Tennessee finally started to come together last week, in a fairly impressive showing. They faced Cleveland, who I still believe is a few years out of a winning record, so take what they did with a grain of salt. Hasselbeck came out hot and threw for three touchdowns in the first half against a soft Browns secondary. He still finished at 10 for 20 on the day, for a total of 220 yards and three touchdowns. He did have a couple of blemishes on the game, 50% on completions isn’t anything to really brag about, and throwing an interception can definitely ruin what was shaping up to be a good day. But losing your best receiver the week before, and still connecting for three touchdowns definitely sends a message. On top of that, Chris Johnson might finally be knocking some lockout rust off of his legs, he surpassed the century mark and hit 101 yards on 23 carries. Although it isn’t CJ’s most impressive showing, it might be a spark that’s showing he’s getting back in to form. Between Hasselbeck and Johnson, the Titans look like they’re in pretty good shape this week.
James Harrison is hurt, Big Ben has been sacked 14 times, lost four fumbles, and thrown five interceptions, and the Steelers are reeling. Normally this would be a time when I say it’s the perfect time for a team to show what they’re made of, it’s time for them to get out there and play their game. But with both their offensive leader giving the ball away three times more than scoring, and one of their emotional leaders on the defensive side of the ball already ruled out, I think that Pittsburgh is surprisingly the underdog this week. They still have Mendenhall and Wallace on the offensive side of the ball, both of who can turn nothing into a touchdown, and a number of intimidating players on defense, but I think that the mental game might just be too much for the Steelers this week. Their only saving grace might be that they are playing at home.
Hasselbeck and Johnson surprise a shock a strong defense on the road and Tennessee leaves with the win 20-13
Cincinnati at Jacksonville
Last week I wrote of Cincinnati’s defense. I completely overlooked them, and handed Buffalo a monster of a win. I don’t think I’ll make the same mistake twice. Cinci held Fred Jackson to just 66 yards on 17 carries, when Jackson had been one of the best rushers in the league through the first three weeks. The Bengal’s actually sit at first in the league right now with allowing opposing offenses an average of only 275.5 yards per game. The Jaguars do have some weapons, but with a rookie quarterback, and no huge names in the wide receiver department, I think the Bengals defense wins the game for two weeks in a row.
Jacksonville put up a decent fight against the powerhouse New Orleans Saints, but they fell behind early and left the games in the hands of rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert ended the game at 16-42, 196 yards and a touchdown. The yardage and touchdown aren’t awful, but a percentage that low is something that won’t beat a defense that’s as strong as the Bengals. On top of that, if the Jags fall behind early against this week they need to really on their best offensive player, Maurice Jones-Drew. Last week MJD had 84 yards, and an average of 7.6 a carry, the bad news there is Jones-Drew only got 11 carries compared to Gabberts 42 passing attempts. This week Jacksonville needs to pick their poison, throw the ball with your rookie quarterback again, or give the ball to a running back that is facing statistically one of the best defenses in the league.
I need to go with Cincinnati this week, they proved to me last week that once they figure out the opposing offense they are going to be a force.
Bengals win 23-10
Seattle at New York Giants
Sidney Rice returning the past couple of weeks has made Seattles offense much better than it was in the first two weeks. In the two games that Rice has played, he’s already only one reception short of being tied for the lead. This addition to the offense seems to be what Jackson has been waiting for to finally start realizing his own potential. Seattle still sits towards the bottom of the league in points and yards, rushing, passing and total. Maybe the next few weeks they can figure out how to get Lynch more involved by spreading out opposing defenses with Rice, but I still think they’re at least a couple of weeks away from really clicking.
Last week the Giants did exactly what I thought they would do against a tough and underrated Cardinals team. New York let the Cardinals hang around, and even lead the game; but just as I expected, Eli somehow, and some way finds a way to win more often than not. Sure some people will argue they got help from the officials with what was a very controversial no-fumble call, but a win is a win. Eli threw two touchdowns in just 58 short seconds, along with a rushing touchdown from both Bradshaw and Jacobs earlier in the game, to steal a win from Arizona. The two headed rushing attack is impressive, the defense is incredibly beat up but continues to hold their own, and Eli still shocks everyone with ridiculous wins.
I don’t think Eli will need two late touchdowns in this one to secure the win. I think the Giants will lock it up early against the inexperienced Seattle offense, and hold the ball with a well balance rushing attack.
New York continues to impress with Eli and a banged up defense winning 24-13.
Arizona at Minnesota
Arizona might not be the best team in the league, but expect for the last two minutes last week they looked pretty impressive. Beanie Wells ran for 138 yards on 27 carries, on top of that he pounded three of those carries into the end zone. I think this was the game Beanie needed to prove that he can be the workhorse for that team. Better news? Kolb thrived under a well balance offense. The games that Kolb started in Philadelphia last season were all games that didn’t rely on just one player shocking a defense, but a plethora of offensive play styles all folding into one to keep the defense guessing. With Wells proving that he can carry his worth, not only is it going to make the Kolb to Fitzgerald combination even scarier, but it’s going to open up receivers like Early Doucet, and Todd Heap later in games. As long as the defense can hold opposing offenses in check, I think Arizona is going to get better each week.
Speaking of getting better, Adrian Peterson needs to become a presence for the Vikings to be successful. McNabb may have finally done a little better, and proven a little bit of his worth this past week, but this team needs Peterson to be good to succeed. Sure Peterson is third in the league on rushing yards right now, and yes he has gotten his share of touches, but what has he done with those touches? Only 3 touchdowns over 4 games. Yeah, some players can only dream of having that in a year, or even a career. But Peterson isn’t “some player.” For the Vikings to be successful AP needs to have a combination of 2008’s yardage, with 2009’s touchdowns, and 2010’s fumbles. Peterson needs to be THE player for the Vikings, because McNabb just doesn’t seem to be working out.
Honestly, this was the hardest game for me to pick this week. I flip-flopped back and forth, looking at both teams from both sides of the ball many times more than I do on most of my games, but with how theses have been playing this year I don’t see how Minnesota can win. Things just haven’t been going right for them this season, and this week I don’t see that changing.
Arizona wins with Beanie Wells getting a majority of touches 21-17
Philadelphia at Buffalo
Anyone who is a football fan has heard this whole “Dream Team” thing. I’m pretty sick of it. Why? Because I predicted the Eagles to be in the SuperBowl before the season even started. Is it still possible? Of Course. But not with how they have been playing. Michael Vick gained nearly 500 yards between his arm and legs last week, but somehow the team still managed to lose the game. The defense that is supposed to be one of the premiere defenses in the game hasn’t given up less than 100 yards on the ground through four weeks. That includes a spectrum of rushing attacks ranging from the dual-headed dragon of Bradshaw and Jacobs of the Giants, to a Frank Gore who was bang-up and questionable going into the game with an ankle sprain. I don’t care if an offense is good, great, or even incredible. If a defense can’t control the pace of the game, if they continue to give up big plays at game changing times, how can they expect to win?
Now that my rant on my disappointment in the Eagles is over, let’s talk about the Bills. Like I said when I was talking about the Bengals earlier, Jackson was held to just 66 yards on 17 carries. Buffalo can’t do this if they expect to beat Philadelphia. I still have faith in Fitzpatrick, and still believe that he and his receivers are fantastic threats in any game, but until the Eagles prove that they can stop the run I’d keep sending Jackson right up the middle until he gets tired, and then hope C.J. Spiller can come out and play and keep that rushing attack going.
The Eagles rushing defense is too poor, and the Bills rushing attack is too strong. I can’t see this game going any other way, especially in Bills territory.
I can’t believe I’m saying this, growing up in a generation where the Bills have forever been in the shadows of the AFC East, but Buffalo moves to 4-1 after winning a high scoring affair 34-31.
New Orleans at Carolina
New Orleans offense continued to impress me last week. It seems that each weeks there’s a new standout player, and a balanced pass heavy attack has kept defenses guessing throughout the early season. With only one loss coming this year, to the reigning champion Green Bay Packers, the Saints have continued to look as good as they’ve been for the past two years. With Drew Brees acquiring new targets like Sproles and Graham, the Saints have grown where they’ve been best, the passing game. Currently ranked second in passing yards per game, and offensive yards per game, Drew and friends are showing no signs of slowing down.
So far this season pass heavy offenses have been a struggle for the blitz heavy Saints defense. Week one saw Aaron Rodgers put up 312 yards and three touchdowns, and week three showed how good Matt Schaub is when he threw for 373 yards and three touchdowns. Now Cam Newton might not be on the Schaub or Rodgers level yet, but when it comes to passing this season Cam sits above both of them in yards thrown. Steve Smith is returning to his former glory with the revitalization of the team. Smith has 24 receptions for 530 yards, and two touchdowns, and expect those numbers to increase this week.
I expect the game to be a fun one, with some big offensive plays coming from either side of the ball. With Carolina being at home I suspect that they’ll being throwing everything they’ve got at New Orleans to try and shock them with the upset. But Brees and company are too good, too versatile.
New Orleans takes one on the road 31-24
Kansas City at Indianapolis
Kansas City had a decent game against Minnesota last week, but that hasn’t been hard for any team this year. Luckily for them, this week is a match-up of backups. Without Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs are going to be the underdogs more often than not this year, and I don’t think that this week is much different. On the bright side, Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe seem to be improving their game each week, and quite possibly could exploit some holes in the Colts secondary this week.
Indianapolis put up a good fight last week. Painter had an above average game thanks to some long catch and runs from Pierre Garcon. Even if no one else is a believer in Painter, Coach Caldwell is fully committed to giving him another start in week five. If the offensive line can hold up, and give him a few extra seconds to breathe, we might see some more long touchdown passes from the young quarterback this week.
This is probably going to be more of a defensive battle than offensive showcase, and I think the Colts probably have a few more weapons, and play stopping players on their roster.
Colts win 17-13
Oakland at Houston
Darren McFadden has rushed for over 150 yards twice this season. In both of those games the Raiders have found a victory. The other two games? McFadden didn’t reach 150 if you add them together, close at 147, but not quite 150. In both of these games the Raiders have lost. Get what I’m saying yet? Oakland, you’ve got one of the best runners in the game, you’ve got the most running yards per game in the league, stick with it! The Houston defense hasn’t faced a rushing attack like the Raiders can present yet this season, with the only team that’s gone over 100 yards against them on the ground being the Dolphins.
Andre Johnson is out. Although this doesn’t spell defeat for the Texans, it does hurt their chances. Andre would spread defenses, and keep the secondary always looking for the pass. This week Jacoby Jones and Owen Daniels are going to have to step up and play big factors in the passing game to compliment Arian Foster’s moves out of the backfield. Foster ran 30 times for over 150 yards last week in his first real game back this season, and as long as his legs keep moving under him this Texans offense should be just fine.
This game is going to be determined by rushing defense. Last week Stevan Ridley of the New England Patriots ran through the Raiders defense. If that defensive front doesn’t step up to a rookie running back, how are they going to do against a proven Arian Foster?
Houston relies on the legs of Arian Foster, and runs to the 24-17 victory.
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
Week 4 Reflections
So my first week with publicizing my picks went really well. I was confident in who I picked, and why I picked them for the most part, there were things I learned throughout the week that really made me sway towards one team over the other, especially after looking at certain offensive versus defensive tendencies, but I can't reveal all of my secrets. This is a weekly reflection that that I'll be putting up every week either Tuesday or Wednesday nights, pretty much just covering certain things that went against how I thought they would, my weekly record, my overall record, and my favorite play of the week. So without further hesitation, let's reflect.
Wrong picks:
This week I only got two picks wrong. The first of those was the Bills versus the Bengals. Not only did I pick the Bills, but I have them a huge victory, boy was I wrong. I stated the fact that rookies Dalton and Green probably weren't going to be that incredible against a defense that had just shut down Tom Brady and the Patriots the week before. Dalton surprised me a lot with his mobility outside of the pocket, making a few big plays including the his diving first down late in the fourth quarter. It wasn't the offense that really surprised me though, but the Bengals defense. I completely overlooked how solid they are, and how concrete of a force they were, including the brick wall they put in front of Fred Jackson. Cincinnati's defense is something to remember in future weeks.
Next was my pick of Minnesota over Kansas City. I again made one really bold prediction here saying Adrian Peterson was going to go off and have a huge day. Kansas City's defense stopped him, McNabb, and the entire Vikings offense making me look pretty foolish. McNabb has really disappointed me so far this year, and he's really making me question picking the Vikings for any game that he starts. On the other side of the ball Dwayne Bowe has been stepping it up the past couple of weeks now as he and Matt Cassel finally look like they're falling back into form. Maybe just some lockout rust? We'll see.
Things to look forward to:
Some big rivalries this week. The Jets at the Patriots where they've lost real big the last few times in New England. Cam Newton and his Panthers will be playing host to Drew Brees and the Saints in a clash of a past and future Superbowl MVP, yeah, I said it. Indy looks for their first win versus a Kansas City team that might be piecing together their broken puzzle. And Chicago adventures to what is sure to be a LOUD Ford Field.
Player's I'd keep my eyes on this week are Fred Jackson versus Philadelphia's horrible rush defense, the battle of rookie Quarterbacks in Dalton vs. Gabbert, Hasselbeck versus a beat up Steelers defense, B.J Raji to get through and pummel Matt Ryan a few times, and the entire Detroit Lions defensive line as they keep Cutler looking worried.
Week 4 Record: 14-2 87.5%
Overall Record: 14-2 87.5%
My Favorite Play of the Week:
Every Sunday night my roommates and I go out for wings, drinks, and football. This past week as we sat down and watched the Ravens give the ball to the Jets for the first time, I looked around the table and said "Sanchez will throw a pick this drive." Although I wasn't quite right, something equally as big and exciting happened.
If there's one thing I love more than anything else in football it's heavy blitz packages. Thank you Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, and Jameel McClain for an incredible first defensive play against the Jets.
That's it for this weeks reflection, if you guys want to see something else added let me know, I'm open to suggestions. If you like this, if you don't, or anything else just drop a comment. I'll be putting my picks up by Friday night, there's just a little more to be broken down before I can commit to anything concrete.
Footballs just three and a half days away.
Wrong picks:
This week I only got two picks wrong. The first of those was the Bills versus the Bengals. Not only did I pick the Bills, but I have them a huge victory, boy was I wrong. I stated the fact that rookies Dalton and Green probably weren't going to be that incredible against a defense that had just shut down Tom Brady and the Patriots the week before. Dalton surprised me a lot with his mobility outside of the pocket, making a few big plays including the his diving first down late in the fourth quarter. It wasn't the offense that really surprised me though, but the Bengals defense. I completely overlooked how solid they are, and how concrete of a force they were, including the brick wall they put in front of Fred Jackson. Cincinnati's defense is something to remember in future weeks.
Next was my pick of Minnesota over Kansas City. I again made one really bold prediction here saying Adrian Peterson was going to go off and have a huge day. Kansas City's defense stopped him, McNabb, and the entire Vikings offense making me look pretty foolish. McNabb has really disappointed me so far this year, and he's really making me question picking the Vikings for any game that he starts. On the other side of the ball Dwayne Bowe has been stepping it up the past couple of weeks now as he and Matt Cassel finally look like they're falling back into form. Maybe just some lockout rust? We'll see.
Things to look forward to:
Some big rivalries this week. The Jets at the Patriots where they've lost real big the last few times in New England. Cam Newton and his Panthers will be playing host to Drew Brees and the Saints in a clash of a past and future Superbowl MVP, yeah, I said it. Indy looks for their first win versus a Kansas City team that might be piecing together their broken puzzle. And Chicago adventures to what is sure to be a LOUD Ford Field.
Player's I'd keep my eyes on this week are Fred Jackson versus Philadelphia's horrible rush defense, the battle of rookie Quarterbacks in Dalton vs. Gabbert, Hasselbeck versus a beat up Steelers defense, B.J Raji to get through and pummel Matt Ryan a few times, and the entire Detroit Lions defensive line as they keep Cutler looking worried.
Week 4 Record: 14-2 87.5%
Overall Record: 14-2 87.5%
My Favorite Play of the Week:
Every Sunday night my roommates and I go out for wings, drinks, and football. This past week as we sat down and watched the Ravens give the ball to the Jets for the first time, I looked around the table and said "Sanchez will throw a pick this drive." Although I wasn't quite right, something equally as big and exciting happened.
If there's one thing I love more than anything else in football it's heavy blitz packages. Thank you Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, and Jameel McClain for an incredible first defensive play against the Jets.
That's it for this weeks reflection, if you guys want to see something else added let me know, I'm open to suggestions. If you like this, if you don't, or anything else just drop a comment. I'll be putting my picks up by Friday night, there's just a little more to be broken down before I can commit to anything concrete.
Footballs just three and a half days away.
Monday, October 3, 2011
Monday Night Football
Curtis Painter has played in three games in his young career. In those three games he’s completed just one out of every three passes, thrown two interceptions, and lost three fumbles. With an offense that is designed around one of the greatest quarterbacks in the league, Curtis Painter has some monstrous shoes to fill. I don’t think that Curtis Painter has the ability to lead this offense the way that it needs to be lead for the Colts to win. I expect the Colts offense to look confused and make some mistakes that cause some big problems for them throughout the game. On the other hand the Indianapolis Defense hasn’t looked too horrible yet this year led by one of the most consistent players in the NFL – Dwight Freeney. Dwight Freeney is an animal, he’s big, fast, and strong. Don’t want to take my word for it? Then check this out.
I’d like to keep my shoes on thank you. It’s going to take a whole lot of this, and an impressive rush stopping defense for the Colts to pull out a victory in week four.
LeGarrette Blount is one of my favorite players to watch in the league. He’s a tough down hill runner, who doesn’t care who or what gets in his way. He’s going to use a versatile set of athletic abilities to either run an opponent over, or leave them diving for his shadow. If the Buccaneers can establish an early running game between the tackles, they are going to have a field day against this Colts defense. Once Blount makes a few hard runs up the gut, the play action is going to open up and Freeman is going to hit a few long bombs before this one is over. With Painter starting opposite the Tampa Bay defense I don’t foresee too many problems as long as they don’t let Indianapolis
With Painter starting it’s really going to come down to the Colts defense, and that’s just asking too much against this young impressive Tampa Bay Tampa
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